1 sentence of what it is
Category
X-risks
Computation of the life
0
Effort/cost
Neglected
0
Number of lives affected, if it worked
0
Probability of being solved
0
Quality of life change
Scale (direct impact on creating happier lives, reducing suffering)
0
Source
from cause prioritization website
Time per life
Utility Category
Weighted Sum
0
apply AI to it?
0
notes
The following was copied from Nuclear Security - Cause Prioritization Wiki. Feel free to edit at will.
Start with GiveWell’s investigation here: http://www.givewell.org/labs/causes/nuclear-security
Also things like
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Zero_%28campaign%29
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Threat_Initiative
- Carl Shulman’s post, which has:
- “What to eat during impact winter?”
- Schelling’s concerns that a world without nuclear weapons may not be safer than one with some
- Cause_areas
Taking these trends together I think it more likely that nuclear risk will decrease than increase, but since annual risk from nuclear weapons is already low, a moderate chance of extreme proliferation, trend-reversal in conflict levels, or nuke-promoting technological change could contribute an important portion of expected nuclear risk.