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Improving forecasting capabilities of individuals and institutions such as companies, governments and societies.

Prediction services

• Social Science Prediction
• PredictionBook
• Metaculus
• What is the story behind Metaculus.com?
• Forecast by Facebook

Here’s a nearly exhaustive list of prediction markets.

Here’s a poll of the most popular platforms among effective altruists.

Projects

• Replication Markets

Organizations

• Social Science Prediction Platform (also see Forecasts of Social Science Results)

Platforms

• Futuur

Grants

March 2016: OpenPhil gave 500,000 USD to support Philip Tetlock’s work on forecasting (see: University of Pennsylvania — Philip Tetlock on Forecasting).

Discussion groups

There’s a Facebook group for EA Predictions.

There’s a Slack channel for EA Forecasting.

Other

Forecasting crime

• Stay Ahead of Poachers: Illegal Wildlife Poaching Prediction and Patrol Planning Under Uncertainty with Field Test Evaluations

External links

• International Futures
• Google — Public Data — Trends
• Forecasting on Wikipedia
• “Expert Prediction: hard and soft”
• “Superforecasting: Supremely Awesome” and “Superforecasting on Epistemic Bait and Switch” by Bryan Caplan
• “A few bites from Superforecasting”
• The Good Judgment Project
• A Long-run perspective on strategic cause selection and philanthropy
• How might better collective decision-making backfire?
• Forecasting search engine Metaforecast
• Cause_areas